Norilsk has thirty-one points in thirty-eight games and sits second from the bottom in the
VHL standings, but they've quietly won four of their last five, including an improbable stretch that saw them take down Bars, CSK VVS, and Sokol on the road. That kind of run doesn't change the trajectory of a lost season, but it does suggest a team that's stopped caring about where it is in the table and started playing with a little spite. That version of Norilsk is more dangerous than you'd think, especially against a similarly mid-struggle opponent with nothing tangible to play for. Akm Tula sits at forty-three points through forty games, which puts them seventeenth in a thirty-team league—not quite buried, but firmly in that uncomfortable zone where losing feels normal and winning is just occasional relief.
What stands out to me about Norilsk's recent surge is how they've managed to win tight games on the road. They're not dominating possession or burying teams with skill, but they're defending structure and capitalizing on mistakes. They score just enough—three or four goals—and lean on their goaltending to stay in it. That's not sustainable long-term, but right now it's working. At home, where they've played fewer than twenty games this season, the familiarity of their own building might reinforce that confidence, though frankly it's hard to say whether home ice matters much for a team that's spent most of this year losing. The pace they play is conservative, patient to a fault, and they'll give up the middle if it means keeping chances to the outside. When they're engaged, they frustrate opponents. When they're not, they get run over.
Akm Tula has won just twice in their last eight road games, and both of those victories came against teams even worse than they are. Away from home, they tend to collapse structurally when pressured, chasing pucks instead of holding lanes and making defensive breakdowns look routine. Their offense is inconsistent—they'll score two or three if they get early momentum, but if they fall behind, they rarely have the composure to claw back. In recent weeks, they've been on the wrong end of games that felt winnable on paper, which is probably a better indicator of where they are mentally than their overall record. They still have enough offensive talent to hurt you if you give them time and space, but their goaltending has been shaky on the road, and that's a problem when you're playing a team that's found a groove defensively.
The head-to-head history is worth a glance. Akm Tula has won four of the last five meetings, including a nine-goal demolition last season that Norilsk would probably rather forget. But the most recent matchup, back in November, was a narrow two-one Akm Tula win, and the styles matched up unevenly—neither team dominated, and one bounce decided it. If this game follows that pattern, it'll come down to special teams and whether either goalie decides to steal it. Norilsk's ability to frustrate opponents in tight spaces could make Akm Tula uncomfortable, especially if the visitors fall into their habit of overcommitting in transition.
I can't help but notice that Norilsk is playing with more urgency than a team in their position usually does, while Akm Tula looks like a squad drifting through mid-January without much direction. That momentum edge, combined with home ice and a defense that's been organized lately, gives Norilsk a narrow advantage. This won't be pretty, and hockey being what it is, Akm Tula could easily steal it if their goalie has a night. But if I had to lean somewhere, it's toward Norilsk finding a way to grind this one out by a goal. Slight edge, not a lock.
Match Odds HC Norilsk – HC Akm Tula
Leon's odds are 2.27 on HC Norilsk triumphing on their territory.
At this moment our odds are equal to 2.7 on HC Akm Tula visiting team's winning.
Draw odds are 4.
