There's a peculiar fragility in
Thailand's recent form that speaks to something deeper than simple wins and losses. In their last two warm-up fixtures, they've faltered—conceding 149 and 111 in chases they couldn't match, having posted 115 and 107. Before that, they dominated the SEA Games with an almost regional authority, posting 259 at one point, winning low-scoring scrambles by a single run, asserting themselves in a tournament where they belonged at the top. But step outside that comfort zone, and the picture shifts.
Nepal arrive at this qualifier having absorbed two heavy defeats in their own warm-ups, yet their record over the past year carries a different texture. Four wins in their last seven T20 internationals, including narrow chases and tight defences—103 chased down against them, 120 defended—suggest a side that understands how to navigate pressure even when the margins are slim. What stands out to me is their willingness to scrap in close games, something
Thailand seemed to lose once the opposition improved.
That contrast matters in a tournament like this.
Thailand bat deep enough to post competitive totals, but when their top order misfires—and it has in recent weeks—the recovery isn't always convincing.
Nepal, meanwhile, seem to operate with a kind of pragmatic resilience, comfortable in situations where the game hinges on small moments. They've lost more than they've won lately, but they've rarely been blown away.
Still, tournament cricket has a way of rewarding teams who can reset quickly.
Thailand's dominance in the SEA Games wasn't that long ago, and if they can rediscover that rhythm early, they'll make this uncomfortable for anyone. But
Nepal have shown they can stay in fights, and in a knockout-adjacent format, that quality holds its own kind of weight.
If I'm leaning anywhere, it's toward
Thailand—but only just. They carry the higher ceiling, the greater firepower on paper. But
Nepal are the sort of side that makes you work for it, and in a format this short, that's rarely a bad place to start.
